The Afrobarometer Round 10 survey, titled “Rocking or Rocked? The State of Multipartyism and Political Party Appeal in Uganda,” launched on July 2, 2024, presents a nuanced picture of Uganda’s democratic landscape, highlighting progress and persistent challenges.
Commitment to Democracy
Uganda ranks among the top African countries in its commitment to democracy. However, public satisfaction with democratic processes is significantly lower. The survey notes, “Uganda’s progression toward full democracy has seen significant gains in the demand for democracy rather than in its supply, marking a shift from a predominantly supply-led to a demand-led democratic regime.”
Democracy in Uganda
Ugandans exhibit an interesting demand and supply trajectory for democracy. The supply of democracy has declined, while the demand follows a cyclic trend, rising and falling, particularly between general election cycles.
Social Services and Economic Issues
Since 2012, Ugandans have consistently ranked the delivery of quality social services—such as health, education, water, and electricity—as the country’s most important problems. These are followed by economic management issues like unemployment, poverty, and taxes, as well as infrastructure concerns in transport and communications.
Elected Leaders’ Responsiveness
In 2024, only 25% of citizens feel that district councilors listen to what ordinary people have to say, down from 40% in 2005. Similarly, only 15% feel this way about members of Parliament, a decrease from 19% in 2005. The survey reveals a growing perception that elected leaders prioritize their political ambitions over public service. Nearly two-thirds (62%) in 2021, down from 72% in 2015, believe that politicians and political party leaders are most concerned with advancing their own political ambitions rather than serving the people.
Views on Multiparty Politics and Opposition
Ugandan citizens are among Africa’s strongest supporters of multiparty politics, yet they report experiencing high levels of violence due to multiparty competition. The proportion of Ugandans who view the political opposition as a viable alternative to lead the country has doubled since 2015. However, the proportion of Ugandans who feel close to a political party has declined over the same period.
Trust in Political Parties
Trust in the ruling party has increased marginally since 2012, particularly among those with lower levels of education and residents in the East, North, West, and rural areas of Uganda. Conversely, trust in the opposition has declined across all demographics, including men, urban residents, and those in the Central region.
Support for Elections and Electoral Institutions
Support for elections as the preferred method for choosing leaders remains high across Africa. However, many Africans, including Ugandans, rate the freeness and fairness of elections in their countries poorly. Trust in institutions responsible for election management is cyclic and weakening across Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania, often declining during election years. Despite high levels of perceived freedom to vote (93%), express opinions (83%), and join political organizations (88%), a significant 69% of Ugandans remain apprehensive about discussing political matters openly.
Readiness of the Electoral Commission (EC)
Uganda ranks among the top countries where citizens fear becoming victims of political intimidation or violence during elections. During the 2021 elections, citizens felt that both opposition and ruling party supporters were likely perpetrators.
Conclusion
The survey concludes that the increase in the perception that political competition often or always leads to violent conflict is undermining democracy and decreasing the appeal of political parties. “Electoral and political violence, particularly during elections, is linked to declining political party identification, support, trust, and perceptions of election quality.” Both ruling and opposition political parties must realign their programs to better reflect the public’s aspirations for democracy and democratic norms. Political leaders need to find a lasting solution to foster a harmonious environment for multiparty politics in Uganda.
