KAMPALA— For the past two years, Uganda’s coffee farmers basked in what many called a “golden era”—a period of strong global demand and soaring prices that turned the country’s signature robusta beans into a prized commodity. But that boom is now giving way to anxiety and loss, as international market forces bring prices back down to earth, threatening the livelihoods of millions.
In recent weeks, farmers across Uganda’s coffee belt have been reeling from a sharp drop in farmgate prices. Robusta FAQ is currently trading at Shs 10,000–11,000 per kilogram, down from recent highs, while the lower-grade Kiboko variant fetches just Shs 5,000–5,500. Arabica parchment and Drugar—typically higher-value beans—are both priced around Shs 14,000–15,000 per kilogram. The figures, drawn from the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry, and Fisheries (MAAIF)’s June 2025 reports, mark a significant comedown from the pandemic-era highs that once made Uganda’s robusta coffee a top global performer.
“This isn’t just about numbers. It’s about livelihoods,” said Alaba Nabimanya, a local businessman. “Traders are losing millions, and some farmers face losing property to banks because they borrowed heavily during the price boom.”
The drop in prices has triggered widespread concern among smallholders and cooperatives. For a country where over 1.8 million households depend on coffee farming, the stakes are high.
From Surge to Slump: The Global Undercurrents
According to the MAAIF, Uganda’s coffee price collapse isn’t due to local policies but rather global developments—many of them out of the country’s control. Most notably, improved weather conditions in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, are expected to yield a robust harvest of 65 million bags for the 2025/26 season. Similarly, Vietnam is projected to produce 31 million bags of robusta, significantly expanding global supply.
These developments coincide with a broader trend: global coffee production is forecast to reach a record 178.7 million 60kg bags this year, outpacing consumption, which is expected to hit 169.4 million bags. With exports also rising—to 122.3 million bags—the market is facing an oversupply. And when supply overshoots demand, prices tumble.
“Coffee prices have always been vulnerable to market forces,” said Dr. Charles Owach, a senior coffee expert at Uganda’s National Agricultural Research Organization (NARO). “We must start encouraging farmers to diversify their income sources and invest in value addition if we want to buffer them against these global shocks.”
Indeed, volatility is nothing new to Uganda’s coffee economy. Over the past decade, average export prices have fluctuated between USD 1.53 and USD 3.11 per kilogram, with 2020/21 seeing the lowest returns. This long-view data reinforces what analysts have long cautioned: coffee prices are inherently unstable, driven by variables such as climate, supply chain dynamics, speculation, and global trade policy.
A Global Commodity, A Local Crisis
What makes coffee pricing particularly unpredictable is the way it is traded. Arabica futures are listed on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York, while robusta is traded on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE). These markets operate on futures contracts that are designed to provide price stability through hedging but can also intensify volatility when driven by speculation.
“Coffee is not priced like maize or bananas—it’s subject to global financial trends,” MAAIF notes in its June analysis. “That’s why a bumper harvest in Brazil or a shift in currency values can send shockwaves all the way to a farm in Mityana or Bushenyi.”
In a bid to calm growing anxiety among producers, MAAIF issued back-to-back updates—first on June 27, then again on June 30—laying out the global causes of the price decline and urging farmers to understand that the dip was cyclical, not structural. The ministry emphasized that no government action or policy had caused the drop, and reassured stakeholders that the long-term fundamentals of Uganda’s coffee industry remained sound.
Still, the timing is painful. Many farmers had ramped up investment during the boom, taking out loans to expand acreage or invest in processing. The return on those investments now looks increasingly uncertain.
Lessons from the Slump
The current price drop comes on the heels of a similar crisis in Uganda’s sugarcane sector last year, raising concerns about whether the country’s agricultural planning adequately accounts for the volatility of global commodity markets. Experts like Owach suggest that Uganda must develop stronger domestic buffers, including price stabilization funds, improved market intelligence, and stronger linkages to value-added sectors such as roasting and packaging.
Meanwhile, MAAIF has urged continued investment in export competitiveness, including improvements in post-harvest handling, certification schemes, and farmer training. These measures, the ministry argues, will not only improve price realization but also insulate the country’s growers from global shocks.
The crisis has also reignited calls for financial reform in rural Uganda. Nabimanya and other stakeholders have expressed frustration that smallholder farmers are often the most exposed, relying on informal lenders or high-interest bank loans without safety nets.
“This is a wake-up call,” Nabimanya said. “We need a better safety net for farmers—otherwise, we’ll keep seeing people rise and fall with every market swing.”
The Road Ahead
Uganda’s coffee sector has weathered many storms, from disease outbreaks to political instability to trade shocks. But the current crisis underscores a familiar truth: while coffee may be the nation’s top agricultural export, it remains beholden to forces far beyond its borders.
If anything, this year’s price decline is a reminder of the need for structural transformation. For now, the Ministry’s transparency has helped calm fears, but the longer-term solution lies in building a coffee economy that doesn’t just ride the waves—but learns how to swim in them.
As Dr. Owach puts it, “Global prices will rise and fall. The question is—how prepared are we when they do?”
