C-News Bureau Chief
Speaking at the recent Guild Leaders’ Annual Summit at Makerere University, Matthew Rukikaire, a former minister and Guild President of Makerere, highlighted what he termed as ‘the greatest demographic upheaval in history.’
Rukikaire noted that by 2050, Africa’s population is expected to soar to 2.5 billion, representing 25% of the global population, a significant rise from less than 10% in 1950. This rapid growth positions Africa at the center of global demographic dynamics, contrasting sharply with more modest increases in regions like Asia and Europe.
“27 years may seem distant, but the majority of you here will still be alive and active,” Rukikaire addressed the young audience, pointing out the immediacy and relevance of these projections. He emphasized the dramatic scale of change, with Uganda and its neighbors like Tanzania and Nigeria expected to double their populations, further intensifying regional dynamics.
The summit also delved into the youthful essence of the continent, with Africa holding the world’s lowest median age at 19 years, compared to 32 in Asia and 44 in Europe. By 2050, East and West Africa are projected to each surpass Greater Europe in population size, marking a significant shift in global demographics.
In 1950, Africa accounted for less than 10 percent of the world’s population while Greater Europe represented 20 percent. By 2050, however, Africa is projected to make up 25 percent of the global population, with Greater Europe declining to just 7 percent, he said.
Africa will contribute to 65 percent of the global population growth from now until 2050, and its population increase is expected to continue robustly. “Twelve countries in particular are experiencing rapid growth and are projected to double their populations by 2050. These include Uganda, Tanzania, D.R. Congo, Nigeria, Niger, Angola, Cote d’Ivoire, Zambia, Mali, Chad, Mozambique, Burkina Faso, and Burundi,” he noted.
“Nigeria, for example, will see its population increase from the current 200 million to 400 million by 2050. Similarly, Uganda’s population is expected to rise from today’s 45 million to almost 90 million, and Kenya from 50 million today to 90 million by 2050. Tanzania will mirror this growth pattern,” he explained.
“If these projections hold true, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda alone will encompass a combined population of 300 million,” he added.
Africa is also the youngest continent globally, with a current median age of 19 years. In comparison, Asia’s median age is 32, and Europe’s is 44. Uganda’s median age is notably younger at just 16. Remarkably, 60 percent of Africa’s population is under the age of 25.
By 2050, both East Africa and West Africa are expected to surpass Greater Europe (including Russia) in population size. Moreover, 40 percent of all children born worldwide will be African, and one-third of the global youth population—those aged between 15 and 24—will be Africans. Indeed, thirty-eight of the world’s forty youngest countries will be in Africa.
He posed a critical question: “What are the implications of this astounding demographic phenomenon? This kind of population growth can be either a curse or a blessing, depending on how it is managed.”
Rukikaire articulated the dual potential outcomes of this population surge: “This kind of population growth can either be a curse or a blessing, depending on how it is handled.” He outlined critical strategies for harnessing this demographic dividend, emphasizing the pivotal role of education, regional integration, and macroeconomic stability.
Education was identified as a crucial sector for empowering Africa’s burgeoning youth population, needing significant reforms to meet future economic demands. Rukikaire argued for enhanced relevance of education to economic realities and the overall health of the population.
On regional integration, he advocated for collective action among African nations to effectively manage the challenges posed by rapid population growth. He stressed the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability to avoid fiscal setbacks that could undermine recent progress.
Highlighting the role of existing initiatives, Rukikaire praised efforts in areas like customs union and cross-border movement, but called for more comprehensive measures to address broader economic and demographic challenges.
The proposal to establish a Centre at Makerere University to spearhead solutions for Sub-Saharan Africa reflects a strategic approach to tackling issues of economic integration, population growth, and environmental management.
In conclusion, Rukikaire proposed expanding the Guild Presidents Leadership Academy to an East African level, with potential oversight from former Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete, aiming to foster a broader regional dialogue on these pressing issues.
This visionary outlook at the Makerere summit underscores the urgent need for strategic planning and cooperation across Africa to optimize the benefits of its demographic trends and safeguard against potential crises.
