OUR REPORTER
Migration has emerged as a significant development challenge in our globalized world. Approximately 184 million people, which accounts for 2.3 percent of the global population, reside outside their country of nationality. Surprisingly, almost half of these individuals are found in low- and middle-income countries such as Uganda. As we move forward, it is essential to understand the implications and dynamics of migration.
The World Development Report 2023 proposes an integrated framework that aims to maximize the developmental impacts of cross-border movements on both the destination and origin countries, as well as on the migrants and refugees themselves. This framework draws upon principles from labor economics and international law, focusing on a “match and motive” matrix. It examines how closely migrants’ skills and attributes align with the needs of destination countries, as well as the underlying motives driving their movements. By differentiating between various types of migration, policymakers can design appropriate migration policies. Collaboration and cooperation at the international level will be crucial for the effective management of migration.
In recent years, several high-income destination countries have initiated programs targeting the root causes of migration, particularly irregular and high-risk migration. The premise behind these initiatives is that fostering development in the origin countries would reduce the number of migrants. However, this notion has sparked debates, with some observers suggesting that development could increase emigration. The relationship between development and propensity to migrate is complex. Two key factors influenced by development in the origin country are the income gap with potential destination countries and the availability of financial resources for prospective migrants. If the origin country experiences rapid economic growth, narrowing the income gap, individuals may find domestic alternatives to improve their lives, making emigration less attractive. However, with development comes increased resources, making migration more affordable. These opposing forces tug in different directions, and the net impact of development on migration depends on which force dominates.
Economic development also influences the destinations of migrants. As countries develop, people have more resources to finance their migration, expanding their choices of destination countries. Additionally, they tend to possess higher skills, making them more welcome in their chosen destinations, according to the World Bank Report 2023. On the other hand, development diminishes incentives to migrate to destinations where the potential gains are limited, such as moving from one low-income country to another.
The concept of the “migration hump” sheds light on emigration rates about the income level and size of the country of origin. Middle-income countries tend to have the highest ratio of emigrants to the population. However, this pattern is more prominent in countries with smaller populations. As larger countries develop, opportunities for internal migration within the country may emerge, reducing the incentives for cross-border migration. The migration hump provides a static perspective, comparing the propensity to migrate across countries at various income levels. However, as countries develop and experience changes in income levels, their emigration patterns may not necessarily align accordingly.
To deepen our understanding of the relationship between development and migration, an additional perspective is required. An analysis of emigration trends in former middle-income countries reveals three key patterns. First, as these countries developed, emigration steadily increased until they reached upper-middle-income levels. However, the fertility rate decline also influenced emigration flows. Second, larger middle-income countries experienced a smaller rise in emigration rates compared to smaller middle-income countries. Third, migration from middle-income countries became increasingly directed toward higher-income destinations, while the propensity to emigrate to neighboring or low-income countries remained largely unchanged.
Migration is a multifaceted phenomenon shaped by various economic, social, and demographic factors. Understanding the complexities surrounding migration is crucial for informed policymaking and effective management of this development challenge. By addressing the root causes and harnessing the potential benefits of migration, we can strive towards achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and promoting inclusive and sustainable development for all.
