KAMPALA: As 2024 came to a close, the global community braced for the consequences of a major political shift in the United States. The re-election of Donald Trump signaled more than just a change in leadership—it marked the U.S.’s second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, a critical international framework for combating climate change. This decision, signed into effect in January 2025, sent shockwaves through the international community, rekindling fears of weakened climate action and fractured global unity.
While the implications of this withdrawal are global, Africa—and Uganda in particular—faces unique vulnerabilities. From declining climate finance to disrupted adaptation efforts, the U.S.’s exit threatens the fragile progress made in regions that contribute the least to global emissions but suffer the most from its consequences.
The Paris Agreement: A Global Pact Under Threat
Adopted in 2015, the Paris Agreement is the world’s most ambitious climate accord, uniting nearly every nation in a shared commitment to limit global warming to below 2°C, with an aspirational target of 1.5°C. The agreement recognizes that developing nations require financial and technical assistance to transition to greener economies and adapt to climate impacts. As part of this commitment, wealthier countries pledged $100 billion annually to support these vulnerable nations.
The United States, as the second-largest global emitter and one of the world’s wealthiest economies, plays a pivotal role in this framework. Its financial contributions, technological innovations, and diplomatic influence are critical in driving global climate action. Without U.S. participation, the ability to meet global climate targets becomes, in the words of climate economist Kate Larsen, “mathematically impossible.”
A History of Instability: The U.S. and the Paris Agreement
The U.S. has a turbulent relationship with the Paris Agreement. Under Barack Obama, the U.S. signed the accord in 2016, committing to substantial emission reductions. However, Donald Trump’s first term saw a sharp reversal, with the U.S. officially withdrawing in 2020, citing the agreement’s “unfair” burden on American industries.
When Joe Biden took office in 2021, one of his first actions was to rejoin the agreement, signaling renewed U.S. commitment to climate leadership. This move not only reinvigorated global climate efforts but also prompted countries like China to upgrade their climate goals. Conversely, Trump’s 2017 withdrawal emboldened countries like Brazil and Saudi Arabia to backslide on their climate commitments, exposing the fragility of global cooperation.
Now, with Trump’s return to office in 2025 and a second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the world is once again grappling with the instability of U.S. climate policy. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned, “The world can’t afford America’s climate policy to swing like a pendulum every four years.” This inconsistency not only undermines trust in the global climate framework but also jeopardizes funding and support for vulnerable nations.
Implications for Africa: The Cost of U.S. Inaction
The African continent, which contributes less than 4 percent of global carbon emissions, bears a disproportionate burden of climate change. From prolonged droughts to devastating floods, the region faces severe climate impacts that threaten food security, livelihoods, and economic stability.
The U.S. has historically been a key contributor to climate finance in Africa, supporting projects through agencies like the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and initiatives such as the Comprehensive Africa Climate Change Initiative (CACCI). For instance, Uganda has set an ambitious goal to reduce emissions by 24.7 percent by 2030, relying heavily on international support to achieve this target.
However, with the U.S. pulling out of the Paris Agreement, funding and technical support for these initiatives are now in question. Nicholas Ssenyonjo, CEO of the Uganda Environment Education Foundation, emphasized the gravity of the situation: “The USA is a pivotal stakeholder in the Green Climate Fund. Trump’s decision to leave the Paris Agreement will affect financing for countries like Uganda in the battle against climate change.”
In 2023, the U.S. maintained its climate funding for Africa at $150 million through the Global Environment Facility (GEF). This funding supported various climate resilience projects, including efforts to improve agriculture, renewable energy, and water resource management. With the U.S. exit, these funds are at risk, threatening the progress of critical projects across the continent.
Callist Tindimugaya, Uganda’s Commissioner for Water Resource Planning and Regulation, expressed concern over the decision’s long-term implications: “Unfortunately, the U.S. has left the agreement, but it is a sovereign state, and the president has a right to do whatever he wants for the interests of the country. But for us, it’s a setback.”
Uganda at a Crossroads: Navigating Climate Challenges Without U.S. Support
Uganda’s agriculture sector, which contributes over 23 percent to GDP and employs more than 70 percent of the population, is highly vulnerable to climate change. Droughts, floods, and unpredictable rainfall have already begun to disrupt food production, threaten livelihoods, and strain the national economy.
With U.S. climate funding in doubt, Uganda must pivot towards alternative strategies to combat climate change. Strengthening ties with regional partners such as the African Union and international organizations like the European Union and the Green Climate Fund could unlock new financial and technical support. Green bonds and carbon credits could also be leveraged to raise local funds for climate initiatives.
In the energy sector, Uganda could expand its renewable energy capacity, particularly in solar and hydropower, to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Implementing climate-smart agriculture practices, such as drought-resistant crops and efficient irrigation systems, would help build resilience in rural communities. Additionally, reforestation efforts, stricter conservation policies, and the use of digital tools for farmers could further mitigate climate risks.
The National Climate Change Act of Uganda provides a strong legal framework to support these initiatives. However, without consistent international backing, the road ahead remains challenging.
The Global Consequences of U.S. Withdrawal
The legality of the U.S. withdrawal has been a topic of debate. Under Article 28 of the Paris Agreement, a country cannot initiate withdrawal until three years after the agreement takes effect in that nation. For the U.S., this date was November 4, 2016. The Trump administration followed the required four-year withdrawal process, formally notifying the United Nations of its intent to leave on November 4, 2019, with the exit becoming official on November 4, 2020.
However, the broader geopolitical consequences of the U.S. stepping back from its climate commitments are far more significant. The U.S. has historically played a leadership role in global climate negotiations, using its influence to pressure other nations to adopt more ambitious climate goals. Without U.S. leadership, there is a risk that other major emitters, such as China and India, could scale back their commitments, further jeopardizing global climate targets.
As Ugandan activist Vanessa Nakate put it: “Climate justice isn’t charity; it’s an obligation.” The United States has contributed 25 percent of cumulative emissions since 1850, and its responsibility to lead the fight against climate change is not just moral—it’s historical.
The Path Forward: Regional Alliances and Sustainable Solutions
While the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is a setback, it is not the end of the road for Uganda or Africa. The continent must now look towards regional partnerships and alternative financing mechanisms to sustain its climate efforts.
By fostering stronger ties with the African Union, European Union, and international climate funds, Uganda can access new financial resources and technical expertise. Renewable energy projects, climate-smart agriculture, and sustainable infrastructure investments will be key to building resilience.
Domestically, Uganda can strengthen the implementation of its National Climate Change Act, promote green technologies, and encourage private sector investment in climate adaptation projects. Community-driven initiatives, supported by local governments and non-governmental organizations, can also play a crucial role in building climate resilience at the grassroots level.
Conclusion: A Call for Global Solidarity
The U.S. exit from the Paris Agreement deepens Africa’s climate vulnerability, threatening food security, economic stability, and public health. For Uganda, adapting to climate change is no longer optional—it’s a necessity. While the loss of U.S. funding is a significant blow, regional alliances, alternative financing, and sustainable solutions offer a path forward.
However, Uganda and Africa cannot fight this battle alone. If major polluters like the U.S. continue to waver in their commitments, the world’s most vulnerable will bear the brunt of the crisis. As the U.N. Secretary-General aptly warned, the world cannot afford for U.S. climate policy to swing like a pendulum. In the fight against climate change, inaction is just another form of denial. The time for global solidarity and consistent leadership is now.
